A dark shadow hangs over the city of Munich today. Yesterday, an attacker injured 36 people, some of them very severely. One of them was a child. I just visited the site of the attack, and I want to express my profound sympathy to all of the victims; I also want to thank you who are gathered here for doing the same just now.
Honoured guests from around the world, I bid you a very warm welcome to the 61st Munich Security Conference. Welcome to Munich! Welcome to Germany!
Most of you are not here for the first time. Many of you return every year when the international security community gathers in Munich at the height of winter. You are all familiar with this venue, with the at times tightly packed hall and corridors. It is a very special ambiance that we have here year after year. At the outset, my hope is that we make full use of this special gathering: for respectful dialogue, for fresh ideas, and for forging new connections. We need all of these things, especially in these turbulent times.
I extend my sincere gratitude to the Bavarian Minister-President and the Lord Mayor of Munich for their renowned hospitality that we are enjoying here. I would like to thank the organisers for their planning and organisation, for curating the agenda, and for bringing together so many distinguished guests. And I wish to express my particular gratitude to Christoph Heusgen. I wholeheartedly thank you, Mr Heusgen, not only for leading the Munich Security Conference in recent years, but also for devoting an entire career to our country and to our diplomatic service; for this, I extend my sincere thanks as Federal President.
Five years ago was the last time I had the opportunity to open the Munich Security Conference. The world has since undergone changes of almost unimaginable magnitude – changes that could well warrant an hours-long keynote speech. With some reluctance, I will forgo such an address. Instead, I will outline four key theses that I believe are critical to our foreign and security policy in the coming years – matters that are particularly close to my heart.
My first point is: Germany will remain a reliable partner. You can count on us! I feel compelled to begin with this point, even though some may consider it self-evident. This conference is taking place at a pivotal moment for my country. In just nine days, Germans will elect a new parliament – more than six months ahead of schedule. In a country where stability is a given and meticulous planning is cherished, such an event is unusual; but it is no cause for concern.
To our partners and friends, I say this clearly: German foreign and security policy will remain European, transatlantic and multilateral. Even in a period of political transition, we will continue to pursue our interests, seek shared solutions and broaden our international partnerships.
And let me be absolutely clear: Europe plays a pivotal role in our policy. Whatever its composition, the next Federal Government must conduct its work in a manner that respects and promotes European unity. European policy rarely results from prescribed consensus. Rather, it is forged through the search for and expansion of common ground. And though this may remain a demanding task, let me assure you: Germany will be a passionate advocate for Europe in the future, too.
My second point is that we heard the wake-up call loud and clear. We got the message. 24 February 2022 marked a watershed moment – the day on which Russia, in breach of international law, invaded Ukraine. The day on which Putin reduced Europe’s security order to rubble.
For three years Ukrainians have been fighting day after day for their country and their freedom. For those three years Germany has stood beside them with humanitarian, financial and, above all, military support – as the world’s second largest donor after the United States. After three years I can say: Europe has heard the wake-up call. Including my country.
Germany has significantly increased its expenditure on security, backed by a large majority in parliament and among the public. We understand it was necessary. However, we also know that this is not the time for complacency. More specifically: Expenditure on security must continue to rise. Our Bundeswehr must become stronger. Not to wage war – but to prevent war.
As threats increase, our ability to defend against those threats must keep pace. The 2% target, which we formally agreed in Wales in 2014, belongs to another era that was confronted with different threats. A decade on, we will need to spend considerably more than was agreed back then. There is no way around this, and any future government in Germany will have to provide the necessary financial scope it requires.
My country has been a member of NATO for 70 years. I believe we Germans should not merely look back nostalgically – grateful for seven decades of security. No, we must ask ourselves what we owe NATO today, so that, in another 70 years, it will still be able to defend freedom and security. Yes, we got the message. We need balanced burden-sharing between Europe and the United States. NATO must stand on two equally strong pillars if it is to remain valuable to both sides. My country will do its part.
Naturally, this discussion is not just about increasing European troop levels, but also about reducing the American troop presence in Europe. I talked about this with Vice President Vance this morning – and I told him that, regardless of what your decision may be, discuss it with us. We share that objective, so let us coordinate the path to achieving it. In any case, none of us can have an interest in weakening NATO’s capabilities in the short term, or in questioning the alliance in the long term. Such an alliance, born of the strength of democracies in the 20th century, could not be founded again in the 21st by anyone – not even the United States. And even the strongest countries – including the United States – will need allies in this century.
Shared strength – that is precisely what matters now for Ukraine as well. President Trump has spoken with President Putin and President Zelensky, and I am certain: Possible paths to ending the war will also be at the heart of many discussions here in Munich.
That outcome – an end to this war – is what we all hope for. How this war concludes will have a lasting impact on our security order and on the influence of both Europe and the United States in the world. I firmly believe that simply "making a deal and leaving" would weaken us all – Ukraine and Europe – but also the United States. For this reason, every scenario – be it before or after the end of fighting – requires our combined power of deterrence and strength. That is why, in every scenario, our support for Ukraine must continue – namely from Europe, and from the United States.
The third point is particularly important to me. Despite all the upheavals, I still believe in the international community. Diplomacy is not a cage fight! Dazed, with our eyes fixed on the White House, each morning’s news since 20 January has left everyone wondering: What is next, and who is next?
Not only does all of this feed the online outrage apparatus. It also has real consequences. I was in Jordan last week on the very morning President Trump announced a plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza to neighbouring countries, and, on the streets of Amman, I could feel people’s overwhelming fear for the very existence of their country.
I do not intend to comment on or evaluate in detail every single announcement and every plan made public in recent days. Rather, I direct an appeal to us all, to the international community of states represented in this hall.
I ask us: How will this breakneck pace change the character of international politics? Could the next four years not only transform the relationship between the United States and other countries, but also the relationships between all states? And, in the process, will the international community as a whole sustain damage? My answer: That is up to us. We are subjects, not objects, in the international order. We must not allow ourselves to be paralysed by the flood of announcements. We must not freeze in fear – or as the English saying goes: Let’s not be deer caught in the headlights!
It is clear that the new American administration holds a worldview that is very different from our own. One that shows no regard for established rules, for partnerships or for the trust that has been built over time. We cannot change that. We have to accept it, and we will deal with it. But I am convinced that it is not in the interest of the international community for this worldview to become the dominant paradigm. The absence of rules must not become the guiding principle of a new world order.
That would mean abandoning our civilisation’s most crucial achievement, laid down 80 years ago in the Charter of the United Nations, which would never have come to being without the ardent support of the United States. If we abandon this, we would only be playing into the hands of others – such as Russia and China – and, even more so, all those countries that have been violating laws and undermining rules for years, precisely because they seek to dismantle this very achievement. That is nothing new, you will say. True. Yet there is a difference when the world’s leading democracy and global power says: "We can do without rules".
That is why my appeal is this: Let us stand by what serves us best. Cooperation serves us. Partnerships and alliances are worthwhile. There are shared interests, there are rules and institutions through which we can resolve conflicts. This truth must not be relegated to the past because this will remain true in the future. Every country, everyone in this hall, knows this from experience. And it is now our task to uphold it. The central task of the coming years will be to preserve the idea of an "international community". We have to save the very idea of the international community!
And finally, I would like to address an issue that has been at the core of my Presidency from day one: the future of liberal democracy. So my fourth point is: Democracy is not a playpen for disruption!
"Disruption" is a term that is currently lauded by tech entrepreneurs and political populists alike: throw all things old on the rubbish heap of history! Granted, this mantra has fundamentally transformed and revolutionised many markets and business models. But democracy is not a business model! Democracy is not a playpen for disruption!
I am speaking about this with such urgency because geopolitical opponents, first and foremost Russia, have for some time now been using the domain of digital communication to wage a hybrid war on liberal democracy. Because China is using digital technology to exercise and expand autocratic power. And as if this were not disconcerting enough, an historically unprecedented concentration of technological, financial and political power is taking shape in the United States. As a democrat, it causes me great concern to see how a small, elite group of businesspeople has both the means and the desire to rewrite a significant part of the liberal democracy playbook. And I am even more concerned when some members of this elite group openly express their contempt for our democratic institutions and norms.
What is at stake today is democracy’s ability to stand up for and assert itself. And considering the global headwinds we face, for democracy to assert itself, we need a strong Europe! This requires massive investments in our own technological capabilities and our digital independence. This week, we have heard clear messages come out of Brussels and Paris in this regard, which have my full support: We are investing in European AI. We are indeed gaining ground on our competitors in the digital domain.
We have the talent, the research capacity, the businesses, the engineering expertise and a huge market – the race is far from over. I am certain that the President of the European Commission will have more to say on this shortly. We Europeans naturally demand that tech companies, just like everyone else, comply with EU law – whether their name be TikTok, X, or something else. We cannot and will not allow platforms to destroy our democratic societies or cause serious harm to our children.
A final word on Europe. I have seen many storms pass through Europe – and every single time I saw Europe stand strong. Just think of how participants at so many Munich Security Conferences, probably some at this one as well, have foretold Europe’s decline ... and it has not come about. A new survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations yielded surprising results, namely that the world takes Europe seriously as a global power – so let us do the same. And let us act accordingly – let us not belittle ourselves and instead pursue the path of self-empowerment that we so urgently need in this challenging geopolitical landscape. I am sure that we are up to the task.
Let me try to summarize my core messages as briefly as I can. To our European colleagues: Let’s toughen up! To our American allies: We have different worldviews – but many good reasons to work together. And to our international guests: The world is changing, but Europe remains Europe. We are open for business. We are open for partnership.
Thank you so much for listening! I wish you all a productive Munich Security Conference.